In keeping with tradition, the St. Mary’s College of Maryland Political Science Department has issued its Election 2016 predictions. There is unanimous agreement that Hilary Clinton will beat Donald Trump though by varying margins. Most see a Democratic Senate majority, however, one professor predicts a Republican majority will welcome President-elect Clinton.
See individual predictions and comments from faculty below.
Todd Eberly, Associate Professor
Popular Vote: Clinton 48%, Trump 46%, Johnson 5%
Electoral college: Clinton 294 to Trump 244
Senate: 52 to 48 Republican majority
House: Republican
“I’m comfortable predicting a Clinton victory, even as Trump climbs in the closing days, but the margin in the electoral college is difficult to predict this year. I could see a Clinton margin as wide as 334 to 204 or as narrow as 273 to 265. And with a popular vote margin as close as I’m predicting, it’s certainly possible that Trump pulls off an upset of Chicago Cubs proportions.”
Matt Fehrs, Associate Professor:
Popular vote: Clinton 49% to Trump 44%
Electoral college: Clinton 322 to Trump 216
Senate: 51 to 49 Democratic majority
House: Republican
Susan Grogan, Professor:
“For the presidential race, the biggest issue is turnout. Clinton’s chances diminish as African-American and young voters stay away from the polls. The Latino vote could be significant, but again turnout matters.”
Electoral College: Clinton 316 to Trump 222
Senate: 52 to 48 Democrat majority
House: Republican
Walter Hill, Professor:
“I can imagine contradictory scenarios with the results for the presidential contest known shortly after the polls close in the Eastern Time Zone and an alternative scenario of the election results not known for quite some time. The former seems more likely.”
Popular Vote: Clinton 53% to Trump 47%
Electoral College: Clinton 347 to Trump 191
Sahar Shafqat, Associate Professor:
Electoral College: Clinton 294 to Trump 244
Senate: 51 to 49 Democratic majority
House: Republican